{
  "country_code": "DM",
  "id": "dominica-boiling-lake-drainage",
  "title": "Boiling Lake: where does the water go?",
  "category": "nature",
  "date": "2004-12-01",
  "date_label": "Month of a documented drainage episode, not an exact day",
  "location": "Boiling Lake, Morne Trois Pitons, Dominica",
  "lat": 15.318,
  "lng": -61.294,
  "summary": "A near-boiling lake sometimes drains and returns without a simple timetable. Published monitoring and experiments investigate its changing vent system.",
  "documented_claim": "UWI recorded the December 2004 drainage and fluctuating recovery into April 2005.",
  "unproven_claim": "A regular supernatural cycle or a single demonstrated trigger explains every episode.",
  "sources": [
    {
      "title": "University of the West Indies — Faculty Report 2004–2005",
      "url": "https://sta.uwi.edu/resources/documents/UWI_Faculty_Report_04-05.pdf",
      "language": "English",
      "kind": "Primary institutional monitoring summary",
      "note": "Records the drainage and subsequent recovery; no current condition is asserted.",
      "id": "S1",
      "accessed_on": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "title": "Rott et al. — Hydrothermal eruptions at unstable crater lakes",
      "url": "https://epub.ub.uni-muenchen.de/84021/",
      "language": "English",
      "kind": "Primary scientific study, accessible abstract",
      "note": "2019, Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 381, 101–118; DOI 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2019.05.020. Indexed paper excerpts also consulted; full UWI download timed out.",
      "id": "S2",
      "accessed_on": "2026-09-30"
    }
  ],
  "country": "Dominica",
  "author": "Eklipsis",
  "content_languages": [
    "en"
  ],
  "path": "/investigations/dominica-boiling-lake-drainage",
  "source_url": "https://sta.uwi.edu/resources/documents/UWI_Faculty_Report_04-05.pdf",
  "location_precision": "region",
  "location_note": "Approximate orientation marker for the named locality, not an exact encounter, burial, ritual or excavation position.",
  "location_source_url": "https://www.openstreetmap.org/?mlat=15.318&mlon=-61.294#map=8/15.318/-61.294",
  "reviewed_on": "2026-09-30",
  "edition": 1,
  "truth_type": "unknown",
  "verdict": "Drainage and refilling are documented hydrothermal phenomena. Their broad physical context is understood, while episode-specific triggers and timing remain research questions.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "title": "The mystery and the documented account",
      "text": "The University of the West Indies’ 2004–2005 faculty report records a major fall in water level at Boiling Lake, drying in December 2004 and subsequent fluctuations before its usual level returned in April 2005. Rott and colleagues’ 2019 study describes irregular draining and refilling above a fluctuating vent system. Its indexed text compares the 2005 and 2016 episodes; the authors investigate hydrothermal eruptions using altered rock and decompression experiments. The mystery is the trigger and sequence of individual instabilities, rather than whether the lake has a supernatural source of heat.",
      "refs": [
        "S1",
        "S2"
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "The question worth investigating",
      "text": "Which changes in vent flow, pressure, sediment or slope conditions precede a particular drainage episode? Similar surface appearances need not reflect identical underground conditions.",
      "refs": []
    },
    {
      "title": "Evidence, provenance and uncertainty",
      "text": "The university report is an institutional monitoring summary. The study’s abstract and indexed paper excerpts were consulted; the complete download timed out. Experimental mechanisms are not a continuous direct view beneath the lake. No present-day condition or imminent eruption is inferred from older observations.",
      "refs": [
        "S1",
        "S2"
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Inspector’s assessment",
      "text": "Drainage and refilling are documented hydrothermal phenomena. Their broad physical context is understood, while episode-specific triggers and timing remain research questions.",
      "refs": []
    },
    {
      "title": "Next research and discriminating evidence",
      "text": "Compare dated water-level, temperature, gas and photographic records from published monitoring. Separate measurements from inferred underground processes. Check whether proposed pressure or landslide mechanisms predict the observed sequence. Seek later published studies before making any current-state assertion.",
      "refs": []
    }
  ],
  "timeline": [
    {
      "date": "December 2004",
      "text": "The institutional report records drying after a pronounced level decline.",
      "refs": [
        "S1"
      ]
    },
    {
      "date": "April 2005",
      "text": "UWI reports a return to the usual water level after fluctuations.",
      "refs": [
        "S1"
      ]
    },
    {
      "date": "2019",
      "text": "Rott and colleagues publish their study of unstable lake behavior and hydrothermal eruption mechanisms.",
      "refs": [
        "S2"
      ]
    },
    {
      "date": "30 September 2026",
      "text": "Eklipsis compiles this English documentary investigation from the named sources. No field visit or new eyewitness interview is claimed.",
      "refs": []
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "text": "UWI recorded the December 2004 drainage and fluctuating recovery into April 2005.",
      "status": "Documented in the named record",
      "refs": [
        "S1"
      ]
    },
    {
      "text": "A regular supernatural cycle or a single demonstrated trigger explains every episode.",
      "status": "Not established by the selected evidence",
      "refs": [
        "S1",
        "S2"
      ]
    },
    {
      "text": "Drainage and refilling are documented hydrothermal phenomena. Their broad physical context is understood, while episode-specific triggers and timing remain research questions.",
      "status": "Editorial assessment; stated limits apply",
      "refs": []
    }
  ],
  "hypotheses": [
    {
      "title": "Instability in a changing vent system",
      "status": "Physical interpretation supported by the study",
      "support": "Irregular drainage occurs above a hydrothermal system with fluctuating gas and water.",
      "limits": "The initiating event of each episode is not directly observed.",
      "test": "Compare proposed vent behavior with the sequence of measured lake changes."
    },
    {
      "title": "Pressure changes associated with capping or slope material",
      "status": "Mechanism investigated experimentally",
      "support": "The study examines decompression and conditions associated with altered material and landslides.",
      "limits": "An experimental mechanism does not identify the cause of every historical drainage.",
      "test": "Look for dated evidence of material input and pressure changes before individual events."
    }
  ],
  "tasks": [
    {
      "title": "Trace the earliest accessible record",
      "body": "For Boiling Lake: where does the water go?, record author or storyteller, collection date, language, translation, page and exact scope. Distinguish evidence of a story being told from evidence of its events. Note which full documents remain unavailable."
    },
    {
      "title": "Investigate the central question",
      "body": "Compare dated water-level, temperature, gas and photographic records from published monitoring. Separate measurements from inferred underground processes. Check whether proposed pressure or landslide mechanisms predict the observed sequence. Seek later published studies before making any current-state assertion."
    },
    {
      "title": "Compare explanations without merging evidence",
      "body": "Compare proposed vent behavior with the sequence of measured lake changes. Look for dated evidence of material input and pressure changes before individual events. Preserve contradictions and unsuccessful searches; proposed work remains unperformed."
    }
  ]
}